notes.husk.org/likes images.

This is a pretty amazing chart. So amazing that I look at it and think “that can’t be right”. But it’s the very reputable British Social Attitudes survey so let’s assume it is.

Basically, it shows that while the percentage of people who want the UK government to tax more and spend more has dropped from a high of 65%-ish to its current 40%-ish level over the last decade or so, the percentage who want the government to tax less and spend less - that blue line at the bottom - has NEVER risen above 10% in the last 30 years, since the BSA survey began. Most people either think the level of taxation and government spending is about right, or too low.

(Notice that the BSA has not allowed the traditional idiot’s opinion that governments should tax less and spend more.)

This is despite the fact that taxing less and spending less has been the ideological motor of the Tories this entire time - i.e. it’s what the governing party for 17 of those 30 years has explicitly promoted. People who actually believe in shrinking the state - when phrased like this, at least - are a tiny minority.

On other things - welfare, immigration, Europe - the right has progressively won the argument. But a US style popular movement in favour of “small government” is unthinkable in the UK.

This explains a lot about the Tory party’s response to the crash, I think. From 1975 to 2008, their line was “we shouldn’t spend money.” This completely failed to convince the British public. So after the crash, they changed their tack to “we can’t spend money”. This has worked a lot better, in terms of the public debate on austerity, and obviously the recent election. And of course, if the state does shrink and “same” still beats “more” tax and spending, they win the practical argument even if they don’t win the ideological one.

But the public are still, basically, fans of public spending. What this suggests to me is that they feel that, when all this austerity stuff ends, things ought to return back to normal and people (hardworking!) can have nice things again via government spending.

This is not, I think, what the Tories intend.